防灾减灾学报

化工园区中多储罐爆炸的形式与过程多样，为确定爆炸冲击波叠加的最大影响作用，提出了最大影响作用分析方法。研究认为，无关联情况下的多储罐同时爆炸过程对化工园区的影响最为显著。基于此，给出了无关联多储罐爆炸过程损伤概率分布的确定思路及分析步骤。研究表明，无关联多储罐爆炸过程所得的损伤概率分布远大于多储罐爆炸损伤演化过程的结果，属于理论上的最大影响情况。该作用分析方法基于已有研究，通过对爆炸冲击波进行分解与合成，获取区域中所有位置的冲击波叠加超压，再将超压转化为损伤概率，进而得到损伤概率分布。通过实例分析计算，验证了上述观点，阐释了无关联多储罐同时爆炸的形成原因和过程，以及本研究的意义和注意事项。

There are many forms and processes of multiple storage tank explosions in chemical industrial parks. In order to determine the maximum impact of explosion shock wave superposition,the paper proposes a maximum impact analysis method. Research suggests that the simultaneous explosion process of unrelated multiple storage tanks has the greatest impact on the chemical park. Based on this, the idea and analysis steps for determining the damage probability distribution during the explosion process of unrelated multiple storage tanks are provided. Research has shown that the damage probability distribution obtained from the unrelated multiple storage tank explosion process is much greater than the result of the storage tank explosion damage evolution process, which is the theoretical maximum impact situation. The impact analysis method is based on existing research, which decomposes and synthesizes the explosion shock waves to obtain the superposition of overpressure at all positions in the area. Finally, the overpressure is converted into damage probability and the damage probability distribution is obtained. The above viewpoint was verified through example analysis and calculation, explaining the reasons and processes for the simultaneous explosion of unrelated multiple storage tanks, as well as the research significance and precautions.